Well I can honestly I didn't see this one coming with the markets diving today. Dow was down 5.5%, and the NASDAQ and S&P500 falling 6.6% and 6.9% respectively. After news broke of the credit downgrade of the US last Friday, I started thinking about Monday, my positions, and my job. With the debt ceiling debate and the ever growing problems in Europe with Italy and Spain, I didn't think it would result with this type of market reaction. Knee-jerk doesn't describe this, more like a sucker punch out of left field.
Fortunately the
portfolio remains intact with over 60% in cash, and what minimized the impact of the the free fall this past week was not having a playbook (
Lesson 2 from my 3 year lessons learned post). I've maintained a majority of the portfolio in cash holdings simply because I don't have an active playbook of which stocks to buy when the prices hit the right ranges. I'd love to say I knew this market downturn was coming, and sold off some of my winners in preparation, but that would be a total lie.So what did I do today? Nothing. While most people were selling, I just sat there reading up on the news. Listening to your fears and acting on them without careful consideration is dangerous. I think one of the best things one can do in times like these is to stay calm and focus on the opportunities that will materialize over the next few weeks and months. That's right... it looks like we're going to have another sale on our hands and it's best to step up coverage and start sifting out for those long term winners. Last April, I started looking into Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Power One Inc. (PWER), and Tim Horton's (THI). Given my lack of time, I'm going to change focus and zone in on Tim Horton's, and throw in Starbucks (SBUX), and the recent IPO darling Dunkin' Doughnuts (DNKN), or as their formally called Dunkin' Brands. There are a few other reasons why I'm going to switch my attention to the retail business of coffee. I love coffee, spend my hard earned dollars at all 3 places, can touch and feel and taste their product, think Tim Horton's at the moment represents the best valuation out of the 3, would like to benchmark them against the each other, and want to know more about the consumer brands and coffee business. So stay tuned for this analysis. It's most likely going to come out in several posts, and I'm hoping it will result in a new addition to the Ten Grand Chicago portfolio.
I also want to apologize to some of the readers who have parted their time in reading this blog. It's gone stale for some time. I haven't been posting much because my day job, home life, and other investments have been eating up all my time. Taking some of the same principles from this actively managed portfolio I've recently gone out and picked up some really good deals in Chicago property this past year. Those of you who know me, know what I'm talking about. Market sell offs are opportunities, and I could start up a whole new blog about what it's like to navigate through these tough lending requirements, short sale/foreclosure market, finding tenants and the like, but that's for another day. This blog is going on 3.5 years now and the main focus is to see what I can do with $10k in capital in equities, ETF's, bonds, and the like.
Finally, for those that want a more balanced view on today's market action one of the few places for good analysis is
Marketplace from American Public Media. They did a nice show today, and one of the Sr.Editor's Paddy Hirsch posted yet another good video clip explaining how credit agencies work. I highly recommend his videos for the simple fact that he keeps things simple. Nice work.
How credit agencies work from Marketplace on Vimeo.
