Monday, February 25, 2008

Playbook

I've been keeping busy digesting and analyzing information for the last little while but I wanted to share some possible ideas that will help my approach going into the 2nd quarter.

The Ten Grand portfolio has stumbled a bit out of the gate, most notably my call on NutriSystem (NTRI). There have been a few companies I have been following of late, but I haven't completed the full set of research. The problem as you can see is that without a playbook, you really don't have anything to act on when the market moves in your favor. Some of you can relate the sense of urgency you may feel when things go on sale, but you're not sure what to buy. Here are some of the high level things I'm working on that should be out over the next few weeks. My playbook:

  • Finish up my analysis of Trimeris (TRMS) and Intevac (IVAC), both members of the portfolio.
  • Dig up some possible education service sector plays based on my analysis of the ISM index released last month. Need to find out how private loan risks are affecting this sector, and see which company's are managing it well. The last time I went through a recession, it was during the dot com bust and from my experience a lot of folks went back to school to brush up on other skills.
  • Men's Warehouse has been beaten up recently due to the softening retail sector. I picked up this idea from an article I read in the Chicago Tribune about what some of the seasoned analysts would do with $10,000. This specific article was one of the many catalysts that caused me to think about this site and my approach.
  • Follow up on what happened with NutriSystem (NTRI), and start analyzing Amazon's (AMZN) strategic direction more closely. My initial analysis of Amazon told me to stay away due to valuation concerns, but if the price keeps sliding, and they show some good strategic moves for margin expansion a possible entry point may be in order.

Happy investing.

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