Saturday, January 16, 2010

Q4 2009 Performance - $11,169

Where has investing 10 grand taken me? Two years into the experiment and we're yielding a total gain of 11.69%. Annualized growth rate of 5.68% I'm not delighted with this performance, but up against the S&P500 which is sporting a -24.06% loss over the same two year time period and investing through one of the worst recessions of our life time... yeah, I'll take what I can get. Looking to grow the spread further in 2010.

I might as well plug some of my other activities. If you care to follow another portfolio I manage, you can follow me on CAPS. Just search for the name "tengrandchicago". All the stocks I invest in for the Ten Grand Chicago portfolio are a subset of what I manage in CAPS. The only difference is the Ten Grand Chicago portfolio is real money, while CAPS is just an area I use to manage ideas and picks. I'm currently beating 94% of the other CAPS members, but I have to stay humble right? I also post on Twitter about business happenings from time to time. Happy investing in 2010!

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

China's bank reserve requirements

China's central bank today released news that it would raise bank reserve requirements in order to cool off the asset bubbles within the country. The immediate impact was a hit on commodity based currencies and stocks.

Of particular interest is the once member of the Ten Grand Chicago porfolio, Southern Copper (PCU) which dropped 4% on the news. The one thing I've learned over the past few years is to walk away when things are bad, but also when things are good. After sporting a 74% total gain in PCU, it was time to leave. Did I forsee this coming? Absolutely not. In fact, I had banked on China's GDP to exhibit continued growth spurring demand for commodities such as copper. This move by China's central bank may signal further turbulence ahead in the global markets.

Monday, January 11, 2010

Emerging Market Wireless Carriers (TurkCell and America Movil)

Disclosure: I own shares of TKC

It has been a long time coming and a rough ride but it looks like Turkecell(TKC) finally has some wind behind its sails as 2010 kicks off. Turkcell has done well on two fronts. Business Week reported a few months ago that the company has weathered a price war against Vodaphone and Avea, and has emerged with a half million new post-paid (monthly billing) customers. What is impressive is that the company has moved 25% of its existing customers to post-paid contracts. Secondly, Q3 earnings show the company sporting 47% gross margins compared to 54% a year ago amidst this price war. The company continues to be profitable and is growing its business in mobile 3G within Turkey

Moving onto America Movil (AMX), the company's 3rd quarter reported strong numbers demonstrating a 15.9% increase in operating profit compared to the same period a year ago. Financing costs were down 80% from a year ago. During the quarter the company added 4 million new subscribers of which a fourth were signed on for post paid contracts. The company continues to invest in 3G and which now covers 70% of their operating region within Latin America. This should set up the stage for future data revenue growth, but I need to dig in a little more to get a baseline understanding of their investment plans over the long haul. I currently do not own America Movil in the portfolio and I'm debating whether I should carry two wireless carriers in the portfolio. I haven't had much time to dig into America Movil's operations, but look to do so over the course of this month. With more troubles on the US domestic front I'm looking to hedge against USD weakness which provides a good sub-story for my continued analysis of America Movil.

Wikinvest Wire